Avaliação de impacto do programa reintegra sobre as exportações brasileiras de manufaturas
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Abstract
O Brasil possui vários planos e programas que integram as políticas públicas de incentivo à exportação. Este trabalho analisa se as alterações nas faixas de alíquota do Regime Especial de Reintegração de Valores Tributários para as Empresas Exportadoras (Reintegra) estiveram associadas a respostas exportadoras diferenciais entre setores manufatureiros brasileiros de alta/média-alta e baixa/média-baixa intensidade tecnológica. Utiliza-se uma estratégia de Diferenças- em-Diferenças com doses discretas, inspirada em Callaway, Goodman-Bacon e Sant’Anna (2024), com dados mensais do COMEX-STAT de janeiro de 2008 a julho de 2025. O modelo principal utiliza efeitos fixos de setor e mês e erros-padrão robustos agrupados por setor. Como a alíquota é nacional e comum aos setores em cada mês, a identificação decorre das interações entre as faixas de alíquota e a intensidade tecnológica. Os resultados não evidenciam resposta exportadora diferencial positiva e estatisticamente robusta dos setores de alta/média-alta tecnologia. Palavras-chave: Políticas públicas; Exportação; Alta tecnologia; Reintegra; Avaliação de impacto; Diferenças em diferenças.
Brazil has various plans and programs that form part of its public policies to encourage exports This study examines whether changes in Reintegra tax-credit rates were associated with differential export responses between Brazilian manufacturing sectors with high/medium-high and low/medium-low technological intensity. A Difference-in-Differences strategy with discrete treatment doses, inspired by Callaway, Goodman-Bacon, and Sant’Anna (2024), is applied to monthly COMEX- STAT data from January 2008 to July 2025. The main model includes sector and month fixed effects, with robust standard errors clustered at the sector level. Since rates are common to all sectors within each month, identification relies on interactions between rate categories and technological intensity. The results do not provide statistically robust evidence of a positive differential export response among high/medium-high-technology manufacturing sectors. Keywords: Public policies; Export; High technology; Reintegra; Impact evaluation; Difference-in-differences.
Brazil has various plans and programs that form part of its public policies to encourage exports This study examines whether changes in Reintegra tax-credit rates were associated with differential export responses between Brazilian manufacturing sectors with high/medium-high and low/medium-low technological intensity. A Difference-in-Differences strategy with discrete treatment doses, inspired by Callaway, Goodman-Bacon, and Sant’Anna (2024), is applied to monthly COMEX- STAT data from January 2008 to July 2025. The main model includes sector and month fixed effects, with robust standard errors clustered at the sector level. Since rates are common to all sectors within each month, identification relies on interactions between rate categories and technological intensity. The results do not provide statistically robust evidence of a positive differential export response among high/medium-high-technology manufacturing sectors. Keywords: Public policies; Export; High technology; Reintegra; Impact evaluation; Difference-in-differences.
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FONTES, Lucas Olivera. Avaliação de impacto do programa reintegra sobre as exportações brasileiras de manufaturas. 2026. 82 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2026.