Efeitos potenciais do NAFTA sobre a agricultura do Estado de Colima - México
Arquivos
Data
1995-12-11
Autores
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Editor
Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Resumo
Neste trabalho, pretende-se explicar o comportamento da agricultura em Colima, no período de 1980-1992 e analisar os possíveis efeitos do Nafta na agricultura do Estado. Na primeira parte da análise, divide-se o período em duas etapas. A primeira corresponde à fase de crise da economia mexicana e, em conseqüência, da agricultura mexicana, e investiga-se quais foram as políticas adotadas pelo Estado para ajustar a economia e quais os seus efeitos sobre a agricultura, além de identificar as culturas mais afetadas. Essa etapa (1982-1985) caracteriza-se pela recessão, inflação, queda das exportações e políticas macroeconômicas de ajuste, entre elas a abertura comercial. Na segunda etapa (1985-1988), evidenciam-se a forte abertura comercial do México e seus efeitos na economia e, particularmente, na agricultura do país e de Colima, ou seja, qual foi o comportamento da oferta agrícola, dadas as suas características de sua estrutura agrícola. Isso permitirá explicar o que aconteceu com a agricultura durante esse período. Na segunda parte do trabalho, pretende-se analisar o que acontece na agricultura com a implantação do Nafta. Para isso, é necessário identificar os produtos agrícolas de Colima que apresentam vantagens comparativas e quais poderão competir no mercado internacional. É a partir dessas informações que se analisam os possíveis efeitos da liberalização em Colima, estruturando cenários teóricos de efeitos na sua estrutura agrícola. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo é responder a duas perguntas: o que aconteceu na agricultura de Colima na primeira etapa da liberalização comercial? O que acontece quando o Nafta começa a influenciar a liberalização? A análise retrospectiva permitirá compreender as tendências e explicar o presente, assim como as mudanças na estrutura do produto agrícola em Colima durante o período considerado. Para atingir este objetivo, serão analisados a importância e o comportamento dos indicadores da oferta no período de 1980 a 1992, assim como a sazonalidade e a produtividade de cada cultura no Estado de Colima: milho, feijão, arroz, sorgo, cana- de-açúcar e café, limão, manga, banana, melão. Serão analisados a demanda no mercado e os preços domésticos, assim como o mercado exterior, suas principais características por produto e comportamento dos preços internacionais. Em relação ao marco teórico, será utilizada a teoria do comércio internacional sob o enfoque neoclássico das vantagens comparativas, utilizando como modelo de mensuração os custos dos recursos domésticos e a Matriz de Análise de Política, desenvolvida recentemente para analisar os efeitos micro e macroeconômicos de políticas comerciais.
In this work, it is sought to explain the behavior of the agriculture products in Colima during the period of 1980-1992 and, to analyze the possible effects of the NAFTA in the agriculture in the state Colima. In the first part of the analysis our period is divided in two stages: the first stage that corresponds to the period of economy crisis and its consequence in the agriculture of Mexico, as well as various policy and controls which the politicians were adopted by the State to adjust the economy. The impact due to this and their effects on the agriculture that allows us to identify the cultivations that are affected. This first stage (1982-85) it is characterized by the recession, inflation, drop in the exports and political macroeconomic of adjustment, among them the commercial opening. In the second stage (1985-88) it allows to identify the strong commercial opening of Mexico and their effects in the economy and particularly in the agriculture of the country and in Colima explaining how the behavior of the agricultural, in the given characteristics and structure of agricultural sector. This would allow to explain what happened with the agriculture during the period of commercial liberalization. In second part leaves it seeks to analyze what will happen in the agriculture with the NAFTA in place. For this, our first step will be to identify in that agricultural products Colima presents comparative advantages and the capacity to compete in the international market. It is starting from that knowledge that will be tried to analyze the possible effects of the liberalization structuring theoretical scenario of effects in agricultural structure. This way the objective is to respond to the two questions; what happened in the agriculture in the first liberalization stage? and is it expected that it will happen in front of the NAFTA in the second liberalization stage? The retrospective analysis will allow to understand the tendencies and to explain the present, as well as its transformations in the structure of the agricultural product in Colima during the considered period. To reach this objectives, the importance and the behavior of the indicators of the supply will be analyzed in the period from 1980 to 1992, as well as seasonal, productivity of each cultivation in the State of Colima: like Corn, Fríjol, Rice, Sorghum, Sugar Cane and Coffee, Lemon, Mango, Banana, Melon. On the demand side, they will be analyzed with respect to the demand in the market and the domestic prices, as well as the external market, their specific characteristic for the products and behavior of the international prices. With relationship to the theoretical mark, they will be used to conceptualize the theoretical concept. The theory of the international trade the neoclassical focus of the comparative advantages, using like model to measure the cost of the domestic resources and the Matrix of Analysis of Politics, this last one instrumental theoretical it was developed recently to analyze the micro effects and macroeconomic of political commercial.
In this work, it is sought to explain the behavior of the agriculture products in Colima during the period of 1980-1992 and, to analyze the possible effects of the NAFTA in the agriculture in the state Colima. In the first part of the analysis our period is divided in two stages: the first stage that corresponds to the period of economy crisis and its consequence in the agriculture of Mexico, as well as various policy and controls which the politicians were adopted by the State to adjust the economy. The impact due to this and their effects on the agriculture that allows us to identify the cultivations that are affected. This first stage (1982-85) it is characterized by the recession, inflation, drop in the exports and political macroeconomic of adjustment, among them the commercial opening. In the second stage (1985-88) it allows to identify the strong commercial opening of Mexico and their effects in the economy and particularly in the agriculture of the country and in Colima explaining how the behavior of the agricultural, in the given characteristics and structure of agricultural sector. This would allow to explain what happened with the agriculture during the period of commercial liberalization. In second part leaves it seeks to analyze what will happen in the agriculture with the NAFTA in place. For this, our first step will be to identify in that agricultural products Colima presents comparative advantages and the capacity to compete in the international market. It is starting from that knowledge that will be tried to analyze the possible effects of the liberalization structuring theoretical scenario of effects in agricultural structure. This way the objective is to respond to the two questions; what happened in the agriculture in the first liberalization stage? and is it expected that it will happen in front of the NAFTA in the second liberalization stage? The retrospective analysis will allow to understand the tendencies and to explain the present, as well as its transformations in the structure of the agricultural product in Colima during the considered period. To reach this objectives, the importance and the behavior of the indicators of the supply will be analyzed in the period from 1980 to 1992, as well as seasonal, productivity of each cultivation in the State of Colima: like Corn, Fríjol, Rice, Sorghum, Sugar Cane and Coffee, Lemon, Mango, Banana, Melon. On the demand side, they will be analyzed with respect to the demand in the market and the domestic prices, as well as the external market, their specific characteristic for the products and behavior of the international prices. With relationship to the theoretical mark, they will be used to conceptualize the theoretical concept. The theory of the international trade the neoclassical focus of the comparative advantages, using like model to measure the cost of the domestic resources and the Matrix of Analysis of Politics, this last one instrumental theoretical it was developed recently to analyze the micro effects and macroeconomic of political commercial.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Comércio internacional, México, Agricultura, Relações econômicas internacionais, International market, Mexico, Agriculture, International economic relations
Citação
GONZALEZ, Saul Martinez. Potential effects of the NAFTA on the agriculture of the state of Colima México. 1995. 197 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 1995.