Efeitos da crise internacional sobre as exportações brasileiras de produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados, 2000 a 2011
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Data
2013-07-31
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Resumo
A crise financeira internacional, iniciada no mercado americano de hipotecas de alto risco em meados de 2007 expandiu-se para uma crise global e sistêmica, propagando-se de variadas formas e em diferentes graus, por toda a economia mundial. Como conseqüência, a crise financeira interrompeu uma trajetória de crescimento dos fluxos internacionais de comércio, que até 2008, refletia e retroalimentava o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e impactou os países em momentos diferentes. No caso do Brasil a crise financeira internacional interrompeu o ciclo de crescimento do comércio exterior. Ela se propagou para o lado real da economia por intermédio de diversos canais de transmissão, financeiros e reais . Assim, projetar o futuro das exportações brasileiras não depende somente da situação interna do país, mas do comportamento do mercado e do cenário econômico externo, uma vez que os países afetados pela crise respondem por parcela significativa das exportações brasileiras. Nesse sentido, é importante destacar que, quanto maior o grau de abertura financeira, maior a vulnerabilidade das economias periféricas às bruscas mudanças de humores dos investidores estrangeiros, que provocam acentuadas e por vezes, trágicas volatilidades de suas principais variáveis financeiras. Diante deste contexto, tendo-se em vista a integração das economias e a disseminação da crise sobre as nações, o presente trabalho se propôs a avaliar os impactos da crise internacional sobre as exportações brasileiras de produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados para os principais parceiros comerciais no período de 2000 a 2011. O referencial teórico utilizado baseou-se nas teorias do comércio internacional e do modelo gravitacional. Como procedimento metodológico, realizou-se estimações de três equações gravitacionais pelo método de efeitos fixos por mínimos quadrados ordinários (MQO) considerando as exportações brasileiras de produtos básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados para os principais parceiros comerciais, no período de 2000 a 2011. Como variáveis explicativas foram utilizadas o nível de renda (produto dos PIB s), a distância entre os países, as tarifas médias aplicadas, os índices de robustez macroeconômica e uma dummy para os anos de 2008, 2009 e 2010 para captar os efeitos da crise internacional. Os principais resultados obtidos pelo presente estudo sugerem que as exportações brasileiras para os parceiros comerciais selecionados são afetadas pelos níveis de renda, pela distância e pelo papel desempenhado pelas tarifas aplicadas ao comércio. Como esperado, o aumento do nível de renda, menores distâncias e a redução das barreiras tarifárias contribuem para aumentar o comércio brasileiro com esses países. Em relação à análise dos impactos de variáveis macroeconômicas sobre as exportações brasileiras, os índices inseridos nas equações gravitacionais apresentaram o comportamento próximo ao esperado, indicando que o aumento da robustez macroeconômica dos países resulta em um acréscimo nas exportações brasileiras. O índice de robustez macroeconômica para o Brasil apresentou-se significativo apenas para os produtos básicos, já o índice construído para os países parceiros do Brasil apresentou-se significativo para os produtos semimanufaturados e manufaturados. Assim, pode-se inferir que o índice de robustez macroeconômica do Brasil é mais importante para explicar o comportamento das exportações brasileiras de produtos básicos, ou seja, a estabilidade econômica interna favorece as exportações brasileiras desses produtos. Para os produtos manufaturados e semimanufaturados a robustez macroeconômica dos países importadores é mais relevante para explicar o comportamento das exportações brasileiras desses produtos. Para a dummy de crise os coeficientes apresentaram o sinal esperado, sendo negativo para as três categorias de produtos analisadas. Porém, apresentou-se significativo para os produtos semimanufaturados e manufaturados. O maior impacto da crise sobre os produtos industrializados (semimanufaturados e manufaturados) reforça o argumento de que países com a estrutura econômica e financeira abalada vão direcionar o consumo para o que é necessário, com o intuito de produzir internamente o que se poderia comprar. Conclui-se assim, que a crise internacional restringiu as exportações brasileiras, sofrendo impactos pela queda do nível de renda dos países bem como pela oscilação das variáveis macroeconômicas.
The international financial crisis, which began in the high-risk American mortgage market in mid-May, 2007, expanded to a global and systemic crisis, spreading in different forms and degrees throughout the world economy. As a consequence, the financial crisis interrupted a trajectory of growth of global trade flows, which reflected and retro fed the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until 2008 and had impact in the countries at different times. In Brazil, the international financial crisis interrupted the growth cycle of the foreign trade. It spread to the real side of the economy by means of various transmissions, financial and real channels. Therefore, designing the future of Brazilian exports does not depend only on the domestic situation of the country but on the market behavior and on the international economical scenery instead, inasmuch as the countries affected by the crisis responded for a significant portion of the Brazilian exports. Thus, the higher the degree of financial openness, the higher the vulnerability of peripheral economies to sudden changes in the moods of foreign investors, which sometimes cause sharp and tragic volatilities of their primary financial variables. Given this context, and in view of the integration of economies and spread of the crisis over the nations, the present work focused on evaluating the impacts of the international crisis on the Brazilian exports of basic, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods to major trading partners in the period from 200 to 2011. The theoretical reference was based on the theories of international trade and the gravity model. As methodological procedure, three gravitational equations were estimated by the method of fixed effects by ordinary least squares (OLS) considering the Brazilian exports of commodityes, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods to the major trading partners from 2000 to 2011. To achieve the objectives of the present study, estimations of a gravity equation were carried out using the fixed effect method by the ordinary least squares (OLS) considering the Brazilian exports of semi-manufactured and manufactured basic products for the major trading partners from 2000 to 2011. The level of income (product of GDP), distance between countries, and the average applied tariffs, rates of macroeconomic and a dummy for 2008, 2009 and 2010 were used as explanatory variables to capture the effects of the international crisis. The principal results achieved by this study suggest that Brazilian exports to selected trading partners are affected by income levels, by the distance and by the role performed by the trade tariffs. As expected, the increase in the level of income, shorter distances and reduction in the tariff barriers contribute to increase the trade between Brazil and those countries. Regarding the analysis of the impacts by the macroeconomical variables on Brazilian exports, the indexes indices inserted into the gravitational equations presented a behavior close to what was expected, showing that the increased robustness in macroeconomic of the countries result in an increase in the Brazilian exports. The macroeconomic robustness index for Brazil was significant only for the basic products. The index built for Brazil s partner countries was significant only for semi- manufactured and manufactured products. Thus, it can be inferred that Brazilian macroeconomic robustness index is more important to explain the behavior of Brazilian exports, that is, the domestic economic stability favors the Brazilian exports of such products. Concerning to manufactured and semi-manufactured products, the macroeconomic robustness of importing countries is more important to explain the behavior of Brazilian exports of those products. The coefficients presented the expected signal for dummy of the crisis, being negative for the three categories of the analyzed products. However, it was significant for semi-manufactured and manufactured products. The highest impact of the crisis on industrialized products (manufactured and semi-manufactured products) reinforces the argument that countries with shaken financial and economic structure will address the consumption for what is necessary, with the objective to produce internally what it could be bought. The international crisis has restricted Brazilian exports, suffering impacts due to the fall in the income level of the countries and the fluctuation of the macroeconomical variables as well.
The international financial crisis, which began in the high-risk American mortgage market in mid-May, 2007, expanded to a global and systemic crisis, spreading in different forms and degrees throughout the world economy. As a consequence, the financial crisis interrupted a trajectory of growth of global trade flows, which reflected and retro fed the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) until 2008 and had impact in the countries at different times. In Brazil, the international financial crisis interrupted the growth cycle of the foreign trade. It spread to the real side of the economy by means of various transmissions, financial and real channels. Therefore, designing the future of Brazilian exports does not depend only on the domestic situation of the country but on the market behavior and on the international economical scenery instead, inasmuch as the countries affected by the crisis responded for a significant portion of the Brazilian exports. Thus, the higher the degree of financial openness, the higher the vulnerability of peripheral economies to sudden changes in the moods of foreign investors, which sometimes cause sharp and tragic volatilities of their primary financial variables. Given this context, and in view of the integration of economies and spread of the crisis over the nations, the present work focused on evaluating the impacts of the international crisis on the Brazilian exports of basic, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods to major trading partners in the period from 200 to 2011. The theoretical reference was based on the theories of international trade and the gravity model. As methodological procedure, three gravitational equations were estimated by the method of fixed effects by ordinary least squares (OLS) considering the Brazilian exports of commodityes, semi-manufactured and manufactured goods to the major trading partners from 2000 to 2011. To achieve the objectives of the present study, estimations of a gravity equation were carried out using the fixed effect method by the ordinary least squares (OLS) considering the Brazilian exports of semi-manufactured and manufactured basic products for the major trading partners from 2000 to 2011. The level of income (product of GDP), distance between countries, and the average applied tariffs, rates of macroeconomic and a dummy for 2008, 2009 and 2010 were used as explanatory variables to capture the effects of the international crisis. The principal results achieved by this study suggest that Brazilian exports to selected trading partners are affected by income levels, by the distance and by the role performed by the trade tariffs. As expected, the increase in the level of income, shorter distances and reduction in the tariff barriers contribute to increase the trade between Brazil and those countries. Regarding the analysis of the impacts by the macroeconomical variables on Brazilian exports, the indexes indices inserted into the gravitational equations presented a behavior close to what was expected, showing that the increased robustness in macroeconomic of the countries result in an increase in the Brazilian exports. The macroeconomic robustness index for Brazil was significant only for the basic products. The index built for Brazil s partner countries was significant only for semi- manufactured and manufactured products. Thus, it can be inferred that Brazilian macroeconomic robustness index is more important to explain the behavior of Brazilian exports, that is, the domestic economic stability favors the Brazilian exports of such products. Concerning to manufactured and semi-manufactured products, the macroeconomic robustness of importing countries is more important to explain the behavior of Brazilian exports of those products. The coefficients presented the expected signal for dummy of the crisis, being negative for the three categories of the analyzed products. However, it was significant for semi-manufactured and manufactured products. The highest impact of the crisis on industrialized products (manufactured and semi-manufactured products) reinforces the argument that countries with shaken financial and economic structure will address the consumption for what is necessary, with the objective to produce internally what it could be bought. The international crisis has restricted Brazilian exports, suffering impacts due to the fall in the income level of the countries and the fluctuation of the macroeconomical variables as well.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Crise internacional, Exportações brasileiras, Modelo Gravitacional, International crisis, Brazilian exports, Gravity model
Citação
BATALHA, Camila Maria Soares. The effects of the international crisis on Brazilian exports of basic, semi- manufactured and manufactured products, 2000 a 2011. 2013. 81 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia e Gerenciamento do Agronegócio; Economia das Relações Internacionais; Economia dos Recursos) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, 2013.