Optimal LNG (liquefied natural gas) regasification scheduling for import terminals with storage

Abstract

We describe a stochastic dynamic programming model for maximising the revenue generated by regasification of LNG (liquefied natural gas) from storage tanks at importation terminals in relation to a natural gas spot market. We present three numerical resolution strategies: a posterior optimal strategy, a rolling intrinsic strategy and a full option strategy based on a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm. We then compare model simulation results to the observed behaviour of three LNG importation terminals in the UK for the period April 2011 to April 2012, and find that there was low correlation between the observed regasification decisions of the operators and those suggested by the three simulated strategies. However, the actions suggested by the model simulations would have generated significantly higher revenues, suggesting that the facilities might have been operated sub-optimally. A further numerical experiment shows that increasing the storage and regasification capacities of a facility can significantly increase the achievable revenue, even without altering the amount of LNG received, by allowing operators more flexibility to defer regasification.