Análise financeira do carvão vegetal e do coque na siderurgia mineira, no período de 1995 a 1999
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Data
2001-04-11
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Resumo
Analisou-se, neste trabalho, a competitividade do termorredutor carvão vegetal em relação ao termorredutor coque mineral, em uma empresa siderúrgica localizada na região do Vale do Aço, Estado de Minas Gerais. O objetivo principal foi a análise financeira da utilização do carvão vegetal adquirido pela empresa siderúrgica no mercado local, do carvão vegetal de produção própria e do coque mineral importado usado na produção do ferro-gusa. Incorporou-se a este estudo a análise de risco, com a finalidade de determinar as condições de competitividade relativa dos termorredutores, em razão das alterações nas variáveis econômicas que determinam o custo da empresa com o carvão vegetal e com o coque. As análises financeiras basearam-se na determinação do preço médio posto-usina do carvão adquirido no mercado, do preço médio posto-usina do coque mineral importado e do custo médio de produção do carvão vegetal produzido pela unidade florestal da siderúrgica. As análises de riscos foram realizadas pela técnica de simulação de Monte Carlo, processadas pelo software @RISK. Mediante essas análises, concluiu-se que a taxa de câmbio é a variável decisiva para que o carvão vegetal adquira vantagem em relação ao coque. Determinou-se que a taxa de câmbio, que viabiliza o carvão vegetal de mercado em relação ao coque mineral, deva ser igual ou maior a R$/US$ 0,80. Dada essa taxa de câmbio, o preço posto-usina favorável ao carvão vegetal de mercado deve ser menor ou igual a R$ 70,00 por tonelada, e o preço posto -usina que inviabiliza o coque deve ser maior ou igual a US$ 120,00, por tonelada. Verificou-se que o carvão de produção própria será favorável, em relação ao carvão vegetal, ao mercado quando seu custo posto-usina for menor que R$ 70,00, por tonelada. Verificou-se que os reflorestamentos da empresa siderúrgica conseguem trabalhar com custos de madeira compatíveis com o custo competitivo do carvão, com taxa de juros abaixo de 12% ao ano e com produtividade dos reflorestamentos de 45 estéreis por hectare.
This work analyzed the competitivity of charcoal as compared to thermoreductor vegetable thermoreductor coke at a metallurgical company in Vale do Aço, Minas Gerais. The main objective was to conduct a financial analysis of the use of three different types of charcoal: 1) vegetable charcoal, acquired by the company at the local market; 2) natural charcoal produced by the company, and 3) imported coke used in the production of cast iron. Risk analysis was included to determine the relative thermoreductors due to economic variable charcoal and foundry coke cost competitivity conditions of the alterations ,determining the vegetable to the company. The financial analyses were based on the determination of the average station/power plant price of the charcoal acquired in the market, the imported mineral foundry coke and the average production cost of the vegetable charcoal produced by the company’s forestation unit. The risk analyses, carried out through the Monte Carlo simulation technique and processed by @RISK software allowed to conclude that the exchange rate is the decisive variable for the present vegetable charcoal advantage in relation to the foundry coke. It was determined that the exchange rate, which renders the market’s vegetable charcoal more viable than the mineral foundry coke, should be equal to or higher than R$/US$ 0,80. Given this exchange rate, the market vegetable charcoal should be lower or equal to R$ 70,00 per ton and the station/power plant price, which renders the foundry coke unviable ,should be higher than or equal to US$ 120,00 per ton. The charcoal produced by the company was found to be superior to the market vegetable charcoal bought in the market provided its station/power plant cost were lower than R$ 70,00 per ton. The company’s reforestation unit can afford wood costs which are compatible with the competitive charcoal costs, with interest rates below 12% per year and reforestation yields of 45 steres per hectare.
This work analyzed the competitivity of charcoal as compared to thermoreductor vegetable thermoreductor coke at a metallurgical company in Vale do Aço, Minas Gerais. The main objective was to conduct a financial analysis of the use of three different types of charcoal: 1) vegetable charcoal, acquired by the company at the local market; 2) natural charcoal produced by the company, and 3) imported coke used in the production of cast iron. Risk analysis was included to determine the relative thermoreductors due to economic variable charcoal and foundry coke cost competitivity conditions of the alterations ,determining the vegetable to the company. The financial analyses were based on the determination of the average station/power plant price of the charcoal acquired in the market, the imported mineral foundry coke and the average production cost of the vegetable charcoal produced by the company’s forestation unit. The risk analyses, carried out through the Monte Carlo simulation technique and processed by @RISK software allowed to conclude that the exchange rate is the decisive variable for the present vegetable charcoal advantage in relation to the foundry coke. It was determined that the exchange rate, which renders the market’s vegetable charcoal more viable than the mineral foundry coke, should be equal to or higher than R$/US$ 0,80. Given this exchange rate, the market vegetable charcoal should be lower or equal to R$ 70,00 per ton and the station/power plant price, which renders the foundry coke unviable ,should be higher than or equal to US$ 120,00 per ton. The charcoal produced by the company was found to be superior to the market vegetable charcoal bought in the market provided its station/power plant cost were lower than R$ 70,00 per ton. The company’s reforestation unit can afford wood costs which are compatible with the competitive charcoal costs, with interest rates below 12% per year and reforestation yields of 45 steres per hectare.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Custo de produção, Siderurgia, Carvão vegetal
Citação
PAIVA, Maria Cristina Silva de. Análise financeira do carvão vegetal e do coque na siderurgia mineira, no período de 1995 a 1999. 2001. 86 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Aplicada) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2001.